Modeling runoff management strategies under climate change scenarios using hydrological simulation in the Zarrineh River Basin, Iran

Abstract Lake Urmia has experienced climate change over the last decades, dramatically reducing water level. This study applies Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to evaluate runoff management strategies under different scenarios in Zarrineh River Basin. We examined two strategies: projected based on business-as-usual (BAU) trend Changes Cropping Pattern (CCP). The variables were downscaled using Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) for near future (2025–2049) far (2075–2099) periods Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) (2.6 8.5). results revealed that decreased by 6–23% 9–52% future, respectively, BAU scenario compared baseline period. Antithetically, it increased 3.5–21% 13–55% periods, CCP strategy estimated up 30% higher than strategy. findings suggested can be considered a pragmatic since surcharged collected into caused mitigation of imminent environmental disasters region provided needs its ecosystems.